Mayweather vs Canelo breakdown

    1Mayweather v Canelo proudly presents an epic week of the Swag Science predictions due to the tremendous amount of bouts this week as well as the mega fight between current pound for pound #1 boxer Floyd Mayweather and rising undefeated Mexican superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez.  I’m going to break down all the fights this week starting with the main event which is in video format

Floyd Mayweather vs Canelo Alvarez

Official Fight Prediction- Mayweather by Close Decision

Danny Garcia vs Lucas Matthysse

Garcia vs LM

This fight has the biggest chance at providing the most fireworks out of the whole ppv card and that’s saying a lot since the main event is so intriguing.  We have 2 power punchers squaring off for junior welterweight supremacy.  Garcia is a hard hitting boxer puncher that specializes in punching with opponents and counter punching with hard shots.  He has solid skills to go with his power, but it’s his defense that really needs the most polishing.  He tends to get hit a little too much and when he does get hit it’s usually a flush shot.  Matthysse is a forward plodding aggressive boxer puncher.  Although he can counter effectively he’s best at backing opponents up and unloading power shots especially his right hand.  His defense is pretty solid, since he tends to attack from a high guard while picking off incoming shots with his gloves.  It’s very subtle so people tend to underrate his defense.  His biggest flaw is his footwork because he often finds himself moving in too fast sometimes falling a little forward off balance.  Good lateral movement mixed with good countering is his weakness.  Judah and Alexander used that strategy in their fights with Lucas.  I don’t see this fight going the distance at all.  I think both fighters will land their money punches so it really comes down to who has the better chin and so far it looks like that will be Matthysse since nobody has yet to have seen him get hurt yet.  He also has the better defense.  I only see him losing if he gets too impatient or greedy allowing for Danny to walk him into the perfect shot.  I see Lucas landing something big early that Garica never fully recovers from which leads to a KO somewhere in the middle rounds.

Official Fight Prediction- Matthysee by Mid-Round KO/Stoppage

Ishe Smith vs Carlos Molina

This fight is a battle of the underdogs in boxing.  Smith finally has a title and Molina finally has a chance to fight for one.  This will also probably be the buzz kill fight of the night since neither guy is rarely in an entertaining fight although I wouldn’t put them in the same category as Miguel Vasquez when it comes to being boring.  Smith is a solid boxer with good all around skills while Molina is a solid pressure boxer with decent skill although his punching power is below average.  This is probably the hardest bout to predict since Smith can get the benefit of the doubt so easily since he’s the champ, hometown fighter, and promoter’s fighter.  Molina also has an ugly style which might turn the judges and crowds off.  Smith’s biggest flaw is that he fights down to the level of his opponent too much and doesn’t display that aggressive passion needed to win close rounds.  Molina’s biggest flaw is that he holds too damn much and smothers his own work so his punches rarely have the effect that they should have.  I think this fight will have a few good moments, but the majority of the action will be carried by Molina who despite his grappling style is always busy.  Smith isn’t the most accurate of punchers so I don’t see him establishing anything that can back Molina up.  I think Molina’s pressure an infighting will take Smith out of his game plan making for a rather uneventful fight where he wins a close decision.

Official Fight Prediction- Molina by Close Decision

Ashley Theophane vs Pablo Cesar Cano

This should be a pretty decent fight to start thing off.  Theophane is a slick boxer with decent pop, while Cano is a solid pressure brawler who always brings it.  Theophane’s boxing skills should win this fight, but not without a few shaky moments due to Cano’s power and aggression.

Official Fight Prediction- Theophane by Competitive Decision

Shawn Porter vs Julio Diaz 2

This fight isn’t on the undercard for The One ppv event, but it is a good rematch that will be televised on Fox Sports Thursday night.  The first bout was competitive an ended in a draw.  Porter’s biggest mistake in that fight was all the extra movement in the later rounds since it allowed Diaz to pick up momentum and give the impression that he was getting to Porter.  I think Porter corrects this fault and applies pressure throughout the rematch.  He’ll do this by punching in combination and utilizing smaller circles when boxing.  Diaz is still a solid fighter and gave Khan quite a scare in his last fight so Porter can’t afford to not take him serious.

Official Fight Prediction- Porter by Decision

2013 Prediction Record- 23 wins and 18 losses

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